Unveiling the Braves' Pitching Puzzle: Creative Solutions for 2026
The Atlanta Braves, a team brimming with potential, faced a setback with the news that Spencer Schwellenbach will undergo arthroscopic surgery on his right elbow. This development prompts a crucial question: What's the next step for the Braves' pitching strategy?
Initially, the Braves aimed to bolster their roster with a playoff-caliber starting pitcher during the off-season. However, this plan has yet to materialize. The process of acquiring players involves more than just a simple grocery store shopping trip; it's a complex negotiation between two parties with various considerations. This applies to both free agents and trades.
Currently, the Braves' starting lineup seems set with Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Reynaldo Lopez, Grant Holmes, and Hurston Waldrep. AJ Smith-Shawver is expected to miss the entire season, Strider hasn't regained his former glory, and Reynaldo Lopez's performance post-injury remains uncertain. Additionally, the Braves' practice of giving Sale extra rest means they'll need either a sixth man or a bullpen game. The team's depth has been stretched thin once again.
While it's logical for the Braves to consider adding another pitcher, the options are limited. Free agents are available, but their names have been circulating on social media. Trade targets like Sandy Alcántara are also in the mix. Another possibility is promoting a player from the farm system to fill a rotation spot. However, let's explore some unconventional ideas.
First, let's address a few realities. When considering trades, it's essential to be pragmatic. Teams aiming for a playoff push are less likely to trade their starters. We've also witnessed teams that aren't expected to win their division still adding players. For instance, the Pirates and Angels have made significant additions, suggesting they plan to retain their starters for now. It's important to note that we're not seeking a replacement for Schwellenbach's level of play but rather serviceable arms to enhance the rotation depth.
Let's examine a team that might be open to trading starters if the deal is right. Reynaldo Lopez, who pitched only 75.2 innings last season but maintained a 2.74 ERA, is an intriguing option. His xERA was higher at 3.96, but it's still within the upper half of MLB pitchers. Fangraphs projects him to have a 3.75 ERA, 3.60 FIP, 3.2 fWAR, 9.0 K/9, and 2.3 BB/9. The Twins may be willing to trade him to clear up some salary while also acquiring prospects.
While it might seem unusual to consider a pitcher with a 5.11 ERA from last season, let's not dismiss him just yet. His xERA of 4.36 indicates he was unlucky, and he was dealing with a hip issue. Hip injuries can have lingering effects, as Braves fans witnessed with Marcell Ozuna last year. Fortunately, Ober is reportedly ready for this season.
Ober has consistently been in the top 10% or better in walk rate over the past four seasons. In 2023-2024, he was arguably an All-Star-level talent with xERAs of 3.61 and 3.25, respectively. Fangraphs projects him to have a 4.28 ERA, 4.25 FIP, 1.8 fWAR, 8.2 K/9, and 2.1 BB/9. If the Twins are willing to sell low, he could be a worthwhile gamble for the Braves, who would maintain team control through 2027.
Staying within the division, let's turn our attention to the Guardians.
Tanner Bibee, a Guardian, is an excellent bounce-back candidate if the team is willing to trade him. He has four years left on his $48MM contract with a team option for 2030. The Guardians clearly plan to keep him as part of their core, so it depends on whether they believe they can remain competitive within his contract window.
While a 4.25 ERA isn't impressive, his xERA was significantly lower at 3.64, the lowest of his three-year career. He's also incredibly durable, having pitched 182.1 innings last season with two complete games. His lowest inning count in a season was 142.0, and that was his rookie year.
Fangraphs projects Bibee to have a 3.90 ERA, 4.04 FIP, 2.5 fWAR, 8.4 K/9, and 2.7 BB/9. These are numbers that any rotation would be happy to have, especially considering the inning count. The real question is whether the Guardians can be convinced to trade him. The odds are low.
Now, let's explore an unconventional idea. The Cardinals are clearly sellers, but how much are they willing to sell?
While the odds of the Cardinals trading McGreevy are slim, it's worth considering if there's a non-zero chance. McGreevy is under team control through 2031 and has pitched only 118.2 innings at the MLB level with a 3.94 ERA. Fangraphs projects him to have a 3.98 ERA, 4.02 FIP, 1.6 fWAR, 6.3 K/9, and 2.2 BB/9. Statcast doesn't share Fangraphs' enthusiasm for his stuff.
In a similar vein, Liberatore is under control through 2029. His career began poorly, but he's shown improvement, becoming a cheap depth arm suitable for the back of a rotation. In 2023, he had a horrendous xERA of 6.04, but he improved to a more manageable 4.19 in 2024. Both seasons, he bounced between being an SP and RP. In 2025, he settled into a full-time starter, providing the Cardinals with 151.2 innings of 4.21 ERA and 4.03 FIP, including his best strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career at 3.05.
Fangraphs projects Liberatore to have a 4.22 ERA, 4.19 FIP, 1.5 fWAR, 7.5 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9. While these numbers aren't eye-catching, they're better than what the Braves might get from Bryce Elder, who is out of options. It would be a gamble for both the Cardinals, who might not see further progress, and the Braves, who might see progress if this hypothetical trade were to occur.
The Braves' approach to Spencer Schwellenbach's injury remains a mystery, but one thing is certain: they'll need depth after the challenges they faced last season.
